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Bank sees positive outlook for shipping
信息来源:from Container Trade Watch    2015-1-7

At ABN AMRO’s annual maritime seminar in Rotterdam in December the bank’s chief economist Han de Jong summarised his outlook for global shipping in a keynote speech entitled ‘Reasons to be cheerful’. De Jong presented the following synopsis of major markets around the world to support his upbeat outlook for the sector in 2015:
• Stronger growth in the USA (which reached an annualised rate of some 5% in the third quarter of 2014) was a positive sign, not only because of the size of the US economy but also because the country tended to lead the business cycle.
• The adverse effects on the German economy from the stand-off between Russia and Europe had for the most part already materialised, and a weaker euro and lower oil prices would bring faster growth in Europe.
• Commodity producers would struggle but China was rebalancing its economy and addressing vulnerabilities, and other emerging markets were expected to stabilise.
De Jong said that low oil prices and low interest rates would support world GDP growth generally and that this would result in greater demand for maritime transport in 2015, a view supported by analysis from IHS Global Insight and Clarkson who have been predicting demand growth of 5-7% in the container shipping sector in 2015.
HSBC’s Transport Indicator agreed that stronger demand should bring a return to profitability after four years of losses for the container lines, but warned that the continuing over-supply of vessel capacity would keep freight rates volatile.